Okinawa is a southern Island of Japan, off the coast of China near to Taiwan. A warm humid place with a population of about 1.4 million including some 26,000 US military. The island has the world’s highest percentage of persons over 100 years of age.
It is currently suffering a wave of COVID infections. Is this a warning for the rest of Japan and the world?
It is currently in a wave of infection that is greater than its previous wave some 6 months ago. The following graph shows number of infections reported on average in each hospital each day. The rise since May (month 5) is obvious & can be compared to the previous wave.
It looks like a rise of about 20 fold since April (month 4) to July (month 7). This also looks about 30% higher than back in January (Month 1).
Is the rest of Japan (or the world) likely to experience something similar?
Okinawa prefecture publishes COVID case and fatality numbers daily from early 2020. The following has been extracted from that source.
Vaccination rate for each dose (Okinawa & Japan average)
Oki Jap
1) 71% 80%
2) 69% 80%
3) 52% 69%
4) 30% 46%
5) 15% 25%
6) 6% 14%
Okinawa is clearly less vaccinated that the average for Japan.
Cases in each year in Okinawa
2020 5,199
2021 45,463
2022 487,738
2023 45,221 to 9 May. (129 days. Which is 128,000 annual rate)
Fatalities in each year in Okinawa
2020 81
2021 317
2022 439
2023 183 to 9 May. (129 days. Which is 517 annual rate)
Case rate fatality (dividing fatalities by cases)
2020 1.6%
2021 0.7%
2022 0.09%
2023 0.4%
Mortality rate (dividing fatalities by population)
2020 0.01%
2021 0.02%
2022 0.03%
2023 0.04%
These mortality rates are far lower than rates in most Western countries. Which include USA at 0.34%, Spain & France at 0.26%, Australia at 0.08% and are low even for Japan on average at 0.06%
Review
There were very few cases reported of Covid in 2020. Of those cases the fatality rate was 1.6%
In 2021 the number of reported cases rose substantially, and the case fatality rate fell to 0.7%.
In 2022 the number of reported cases rose even more substantially, and the case fatality rate fell substantially to 0.09%
In 2023 the number of reported cases fell, and the case fatality rate rose to 0.4%
The mortality rate (number of COVID deaths compared to entire population) in Okinawa are lower than the average for Japan, which is low in comparison to most other countries.
Japan removed requirements to wear masks in March or April 2023. The advice is that masks are now a matter of personal choice.
The report on how many PCR tests for COVID are being taken only runs to 25th April 2023. Therefore ‘case’ data is probably not accurate after that date.
Okinawa is less vaccinated that the rest of Japan, therefore it may be an outlier in the current infections & deaths.
Sources
Graph of Okinawa ‘cases’
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/data/pref/okinawa.html
Okinawa Prefecture Covid stats
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/data/pref/okinawa.html
World mortality rates
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Population & general info
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_Island
Local Government site
https://www.pref.okinawa.lg.jp/site/chijiko/kohokoryu/foreign/english/index.html
PCR tests
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/data-all/#graph--mhlw__pcr-inspection